This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these early cards so that I will wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and then go out and revel in the rest of the afternoon once the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters making their UFC debut. Because of this, I believe we should have a big edge this week if we put in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on these titles they’ve never heard and will only be throwing in lineups seeking to get lucky and hit on a huge score. I’ll personally be chasing the big $15k top prize in the 8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at these huge prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card that Sunday and I believe we will see a good deal of people making mistakes in money games. Any time I think I will guarantee a total 100+ points in a struggle, I like to stack it in my money games and lock in those factors. I think this fight is going to be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I think we can observe numerous knockdowns as well which can help, but I believe we easily get over 100+ points combined with these two men. Let us let everyone else make the mistakes and we could lock at a 100+ points and a win, then we only need to find another 3 wins we’re convinced in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think that this matchup was put up to get Bermudez a triumph. He has a very slick submission game and when this fight goes to the ground I presume he will pick up advance points quickly and find a submission. Grant has had issues with entry defense in his profession and even when he is winning the toes, he still shoots for takedowns each fight. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I believe we could observe a 1st round submission here which should easily get that the 10x+ we’re looking for at his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this battle he’ll easily repay this price . He’s got 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup if he can arrive. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse rivalry. I would not be shocked if Shogun can get a KO here against Smith, who’s carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the last couple of years but I think he still has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory . I really do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I believe you want some vulnerability to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my own picks being right and that I will hit the ideal combo. It is hard to pick one favorite fade this week however I will select Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I believe he will use takedowns to get the choice win here. Thus, you would think that seems good on DraftKings because wrestling racks up points. However, he does not chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He does not have much completing ability and I really don’t see him getting a submission. But I believe we’ll see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him in the past. Hein has 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he is my fade of the week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my private strategies & recommendations, and my select prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:

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